Behavior-Based Leadership
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March 15, 2025
Possibility vs. probability and why we need to distinguish between them
The advertisement on T.V. came on with some very ominous music and an announcer’s deep foreboding voice said “The possibility of earthquakes in California is real…” And then there is an offer to buy earthquake insurance…This commercial always makes me think about the difference between possibility and probability. The difference between possibility and probability is something that we should consider as leaders because we should anticipate and prepare for the possibilities, but when we operate, we operate more in the probabilities.
A lot of advertisers and especially political advertisements use the “possibility” factor to create fear of the future… “if (blank) happens...”
"Anything is possible...but what is really probable?"
An example: As a business owner, it is possible to make millions and billions of dollars and become the richest person in the world, but because the business is only a small 2-person shop the probability of becoming the richest person in the world is exceedingly small.
As a leader, we should be considering what is possible, both good and bad. That is the basic premise behind a S.W.O.T. analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats). If we can predict the possibilities, then we can prepare ourselves, our followers, and our entire organizations to achieve them, or try to avoid them. But how realistic, how likely are those possibilities? Can we actually plan to become the richest person in the world, if not, what is most likely to happen? What is most probable?
Considering what will probably happen is completely different than considering what is possible. Is it possible that an airplane will fall out of the sky directly on top of you? Yes, it is possible! But the likelihood (probability) of that happening to the average person walking around in their lifetime is so tiny that we don’t walk around looking for airplanes that are directly above us either.
So, when should we consider the possibilities vs. the probabilities?
Good leaders consider the possibilities, because possibilities are a thing or things that may happen or be the case. Good leaders know that possibilities are important when looking toward the future, to imagine what the future could look like, what possible changes could happen, what are the possible threats to moving forward, and what possible liability could they and the organization have.
Likewise, good leaders consider the “probabilities” when they have a specific set of circumstances in the present or immediate future or past. Because probabilities are the extent to which an event is likely to occur, based on specific information, or under a set of circumstances.
Let’s look at a real-life application:
Reflect on what the average police officer must consider on a daily, hourly, or sometimes minute by minute basis. What possible crimes can be occurring? When and where is the next possible threat going to happen? Who is the person or the people who could possibly hurt them? What possible actions would she/he have to take? These are all unknowns that the police officer must consider and be prepared for. But, when a police officer is working on a call or incident and there are more specific criteria provided, it is easier for the police officer to evaluate the probability of actions, based on those specific criteria. The officer is now operating in the probability zone, but still must consider the possibilities.
Putting It All Together:
Leaders should be considering all the possibilities to envision and prepare for the future, while identifying and limiting liability and risk. But leaders should operate in the “probability zone,” while paying attention to, or in response to the specific criteria or circumstances that they find themselves in or working through. Both possibilities and probabilities are important for leaders, knowing when to consider possibilities, yet operate in probabilities, is the true artful application of a good leader.
Quotes to Put into Practice:
“To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old problems from a new angle, requires creative imagination and marks real advance in science.” – Albert Einstein, Scientist
“Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability.” – William Osler, Scientist